Global Investment Outlook: Q4 2021

Multi-Asset Outlooks from Leading Asset Managers

As markets continue to cope with the confluence of the coronavirus Delta variant, higher inflation, and the onset of Federal Reserve tapering, many investors are turning an eye towards emerging economies, evaluating the spread between EM and DM rates, and wondering if 2013-like policy announcements in the Western world will cause similar ripple effects to cascade into emerging markets.

From global multi-asset outlooks to deep-dives on specific asset classes such as EM debt and commodities, we have gathered some of the best quarterly investment outlooks from leading asset managers.

Multi Asset Quarterly: Global strategy (NN IP, Oct 2021)

Where the economy goes from here depends on various factors including how the coronavirus develops, whether inflation turns out to be transitory, and what happens with monetary policy. Supply chain disruption has added a further layer of concern.

House View Q4 2021 (Aviva Investors)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The policy response to the Covid-19 fueled economic downturn helped lead a recovery that has been faster and stronger than many predicted. There has also been a movement away from service consumption towards a greater demand for goods.

2021 Global Outlook Q4 Update (BlackRock)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

The powerful economic restart is broadening, with Europe and other major economies catching up with the U.S. BlackRock expects a higher inflation regime in the medium term – with a more muted monetary response than in the past. Tactical implication: BlackRock is overweight in European equities and inflation-linked bonds, with an upgrade in emerging market local debt to overweight.

Fixed Income Outlook: Barbelling Credit and Defensives (SSGA | SPDR, Oct 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Fixed income investors are operating in a market environment buffeted by various factors – Covid-19 uncertainty persists, Fed tapering is slated before the end of the year, and rate hikes could be coming next year.

Q4 2021 EM Debt Outlook: Living in a post-peak growth world (UBS AM)

The global growth picture is mixed, with emerging markets trailing the recovery that has been seen in developed markets. Emerging market fixed income generally posted negative performance in Q3 2021.

Why EM Could Be Back in Focus in 2022 – Charts & views (Amundi, Oct 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Emerging markets (EM) have struggled so far this year – lingering Covid-19 concerns, Chinese volatility and the anticipation of Fed tapering all providing a headwind. Despite this, Amundi suggests that the way forward is positive for EM.

U.S. Russell Quarterly Spotlight – October 2021 (FTSE Russell)

Russell 1000 and large-cap Growth fared well in Q3, eating into Value’s significant YTD lead. Uncertainty over the U.S. economy’s trajectory, including the path of inflation and Fed tapering, is weighing on equity valuations generally.

Quarterly Fixed Income Outlook: Q4 2021 (PGIM Fixed Income)

PGIM Fixed Income looks at where the bond market may be headed, accepting that this year’s strong recovery may not persist given numerous and continued economic challenges. They look to identify where the opportunities may be going forward.

Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook Q4 2021 (Franklin Templeton Investments)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton puts forward hedge fund type investments as a source of investment return in what is a challenging environment. Traditional markets meanwhile are volatile thanks to the ever-changing economic backdrop.

Fixed Income Outlook – Oct 2021 (Putnam Investments)

Putnam Investments provides their Q4 outlook on fixed income markets, with updates on global monetary policy, tapering QE in the United States, and other economic implications for fixed income investors.

Emerging Markets Quarterly Outlook – Oct 2021 (CLIM)

Emerging markets are in focus in this quarterly report from City of London Investment Group. The report covers 15 different emerging market economies in depth, complete with recent economic data.

Quarterly Commodity Markets Technical Analysis Outlook (Reuters, Oct 2021)

Gold and the U.S. dollar are explored as part of a Reuters technical analysis on the major commodity markets.

ICMA Quarterly Report (2021)

This issue of the ICMA quarterly report covers the move away from LIBOR, sustainable finance developments, digital representation of transactions, the commercial paper market in Europe and CSDR mandatory buy-ins.