The Global Economy: What Next?
Inflation, Recession, and Supply Chains
“It’s the economy, stupid”. 30 years on, the words ring as true as ever. The key dynamics at play today are inflation, including central bank policy, and growth – or perhaps more truthfully, recession. There was much talk about how global supply chains feed into it all a few months ago, and risks remain. But there may be some helpful tailwinds on the way.
Getting to the Other Side of This Economic Shoulder Season (BlackRock)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States
The U.S. economy slowed after its post-Covid boost. The coming months will show how severe the slowdown will be, and whether investors will see a bottoming in financial markets.
Higher Inflation, Recession More Likely (Franklin Templeton Investments)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region
Discussing regional impacts, this paper tackles the key economic themes of U.S. inflation and growth, U.S. dollar strength, Europe’s energy crisis, and China’s economic slowdown.
The Slippery Slope: A Recessionary Indicator (Lombard Odier IM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
What does history tell us about the behaviour of the term structure of interest rates during, and particular on entering, periods of recession? And how does inflation fit in?
A Sobering Outlook For the UK Economy (PGIM Fixed Income)
This article reviews the Bank of England’s recent 50bp rate rise and alarming economic forecast, including what it means for sterling and other central banks around the world.
What a Fed Policy Error Could Mean For the Global Economy (Invesco)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
There is a good amount of market data and commentary to suggest that U.S. inflationary pressure may have peaked. If so, what might happen if the Fed continued its hawkish stance?
U.S. Inflation: Supply Chains to the Rescue? (Wellington Management)
Economic implications of an inflation outlook which shows signs of improvement in the goods economy (including supply chains) but potential for persistence in the service economy.
Global Supply Chains: Complexities multiply (Citi GPS)
A detailed report on global supply chain dynamics. It considers five key macro drivers, followed by the risks to supply chains resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The First Step in Improving Supply Chains (AEI, 2022)
This paper suggests supply chain resilience can be improved by focusing on the full chain, especially constitutive materials, and not just on greater output of final products.
