Economic Slowdown Ahead?

The global economy remains under the omen of volatility…

Investors, like economists, find themselves between uncertainty and more uncertainty when predicting global growth. True, data shows improvements across certain key economies, like the U.S., but the question is: for how long? There are plenty of risks, some explored below, which give reasons for caution.

Can The U.S. Avoid A Recession This Time? (CME Group)

Over the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates by 525 basis points (bps), its biggest tightening of monetary policy since 1981. What's next for the U.S. economy?

Economic Surprises: What Really Moves The Market (Refinitiv)

Previous research has shown that economic data releases that differ significantly from the consensus can move markets. Is this still true?

Macro Implications Of The AI Revolution (Wellington Management)

Studies estimate that AI could boost productivity by anywhere between 0.2% and 3%, with very different implications.

Fixed Income Investing In U.S. Recessions (MFS)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

There have been eight recessions (as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research) in the U.S. since 1969. Should investors expect another one?

China's Economic Crossroads: Can Growth Be Revived? (Macrobond)

China's economic growth impacts the growth trajectory of the entire world. If the Chinese economy slows, there is a risk that the global economy will too.

Global Emerging Markets: Adjusting To Slower Chinese Growth (BNP Paribas AM)

In today's macro environment questions about the growth potential of emerging markets are surfacing fast, especially regarding Asian developing economies.

Seven Reminders While on Recession Watch (Hussman Funds)

In recent months, the consensus of economists has become less certain about the outlook for a recession in the U.S. economy. What should investors do?

European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000 (VoxEU)

Modern advanced economies share long, prosperous expansions and short, mild contractions. Is this model about to change?

An Economic Slowdown Could Surprise Markets (Northern Trust Asset Management)

Economic data remains docile, but surprises can still pop up here and there. Investors should be prepared for a less than favorable economic environment going forward.

India Economic Monitor Oct 2023 (BCG)

Looking at recent data, in September, most high-frequency indicators exhibited a mild to moderate growth vs. previous month.

U.S. Government Spending: Its Implications for the Economy (Game of Trades)

Over the last two decades, government spending as a percentage of GDP has soared to record highs, surpassing levels not seen since 1964.

The Five Forces Shaping the Global Economy | Ray Dalio (Money Maze)

Ray Dalio provides his views on the key drivers for economic growth and what can cause a crisis essentially overnight.