A new blueprint for the global economy?

The global economy through the eyes of key asset managers

The global economy remains under pressure from a growing list of risks, including the protectionist policies from the White House, geopolitical instability, continuing inflationary issues, and an increasing level of corporate and government debt. Is the picture truly so gloomy? This selection of insights offers perspectives on the direction of the global economy from before the lates wave of U.S. tariffs, and in its immediate aftermath.

The economy before "Liberation Day"

Two Policy Risks in the Spotlight (Northern Trust Asset Management)

There are two significant policy risks looming in the weeks ahead: U.S. domestic policy risk and global policy risk.

Can the U.S. Sustain a Rising Debt Burden? (Amundi)

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The trajectory of U.S. federal government debt is escalating, with debt held by the public potentially rising from just under 100% today to more than 170% of GDP in 30 years.

Macro Views: Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Impact (Fisher Investments)

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The global economic expansion and equity bull market should continue in 2025. However, risks do lie ahead.

Five Themes for a New Economic Landing (Nuveen)

The U.S. economy may gradually decelerate to a cruising speed closer to 2.0% over the coming quarters (and may be on track to have a negative first quarter reading).

A Return to Uncertainty: Will Growth Stabilize? (MetLife IM)

Uncertainty is making it more difficult for some firms (and their customers) to plan purchases and make long-term commitments.

Investment and Economic Outlook, March 2025 (Vanguard)

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Uncertainty around tariffs, immigration, and other policy is likely to weigh on the U.S. economy in 2025.

Understanding Tariffs in Five Charts (Capital Group)

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The rewiring of global trade due to U.S. tariffs reflects a larger shift in geopolitical world order that is just beginning.

FY2025 - FY2026 Economic Outlook (Mizuho)

The global economy is expected to recover only slowly as the U.S. raises tariffs in stages. But are growth prospects too pessimistic?

Tariffs, Deglobalization and the Cost of Decarbonization (Goldman Sachs)

This paper looks at three forces that are shaping the global economy: tariffs, the cost of carbon, and the prospects for growth.

The economy after "Liberation Day"

Liberation Day Commentary (Invesco)

U.S. President Trump announced tariffs to be applied on imports from a variety of countries. These tariffs were worse than most had expected.

Could “Liberation Day” Shackle the Global Economy? (Allianz Global Investors)

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The Trump administration’s announcement of a 10% universal levy and higher duties on major trading partners caused market volatility to spike.

Recent U.S. Tariff Decisions & ME Businesses: What to do now? ​(PwC)

Middle East countries, including the UAE, and KSA will be subject to additional tariff rate of 10%.

Trump Tariffs: Economic and Market Implications (DBS)

Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff regime. They are still, however, subject to plans to impose 25% tariffs on most imports.

U.S. “Reciprocal” Tariffs: Implications for Germany (EconPol)

Considering the importance of the U.S. market for different products, the proposed U.S. tariffs could heavily disrupt the export activities of German firms.

The Implications of ‘Liberation Day’ (Standard Chartered Bank)

President Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” resulted in higher-than expected tariffs on imports into America.