The Emerging Macro Picture

New dynamics are shaping markets and economies

The macroeconomic landscape is changing. Geopolitical shifts, monetary policy twists and other momentous movements are forcing investors to rethink their asset allocation. This collection of hand-picked research is designed to help allocators spot these macro developments, a few of which may fly under the radar.

China's Past, Present and Future (Morgan Stanley IM)

China faces binding constraints including unfavourable demographics, elevated debt levels, a productivity slowdown and rising income inequality.

The Five Forces Shaping U.S. Retirement (BlackRock)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Retirement outcomes are impacted by the markets, regulation, workplace offerings, health, and more. Here are the key five forces that are shaping the U.S. retirement universe.

Munis, Fed Policy, And Negative Convexity (Vanguard)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Negative convexity coming back into play can provide an opportunity to maximize return characteristics going forward.

Are Higher Interest Rates A Boon For Value? (PGIM Quantitative Solutions)

Data shows that expensive stocks can be more sensitive to interest rate changes than cheap stocks, tending to outperform cheap stocks during falling rate environments.

How U.S. Crude Exports Reshaped Global Oil Trade (CME Group)

As the U.S. has evolved into an export powerhouse, the price of WTI has become the most important barrel in the world.

Emerging Market Macro Insights (Invesco)

High interest rate differentials versus DMs have benefited EM currencies this year, and a weaker U.S. dollar could enable EM currencies to offer an additional source of return.

Betting on War? Oil Prices, Stock Returns and Extreme Geopolitical Events

This paper identifies five extreme geopolitical events and shows that these events make an outsized contribution to the ability of oil prices to predict stock returns.

What Happened to Boomers’ Retirement Wealth? (Center for Retirement Research)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

The key questions answered here are: Why do Late Boomers have so little wealth? And what do the patterns imply for Early Gen Xers and subsequent cohorts?