Global Investment Outlook: Mar 2021
Does the Reflation Trade Have Legs?
Monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, alongside the proliferation of Covid-19 vaccines, have given a boost to consumer confidence. GDP is on the rise, as are inflation expectations – and the combined effect of the two has become known as reflation. The reflation trade was in full effect this past month, spurring bond yields, commodities, and equities all higher.
But what does this mean for the month of March? Have U.S. equities and bond yields climbed too high too quickly? Are opportunities still present in emerging markets? The following list of economic outlook and investment strategy papers from leading asset managers should provide further clarity.
Monthly Market Review: Reflation trade hits a speed bump (NN IP, Mar 2021)
In their multi-asset outlook, NN IP covers the reflation story in detail. Rising government bond yields have given ebullient investors a slight pause, but optimism remains high.
Biden’s Stimulus Plan: No free lunch (Janus Henderson, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
U.S. President Biden's newest stimulus package is on the cusp of being approved by Congress, but what would the implications be for markets? Paul O'Connor of Janus Henderson Investors examines the potential effects in this brief article.
Global Equities: Four things we are watching this year (Franklin Templeton, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region
Franklin Templeton looks at four potential themes for 2021 – the implications of a return to 'normalcy', equity valuations, stimulus measures, and the potential resurgence of value stocks.
Is the U.S. Equity Market Heading for a Bubble? (Eaton Vance, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
Eaton Vance looks at valuations within the U.S. equity market and the typical tell-tale signs of an asset bubble. However, even if a bubble does exist, the mere existence of an asset bubble does not necessitate any sort of a crash.
The World in 2030: Investing for the next decade (Capital Group, 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
Capital Group engages in a long-term discussion in this article, invoking secular trends such as the decline of cash transactions, the rise of renewable energy, and the acceleration of innovations in the healthcare industry.
Rethinking Diversification and De-Labeling Growth (MFS IM, Mar 2021)
Benchmark allocations are frequently skewed towards certain sectors. MFS recommends that asset owners pay more attention to sector and industry exposures when attempting to diversify their equity portfolios.
Webinar: Headwinds or tailwinds – Emerging markets outlook (RBC GAM, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Within this webinar, portfolio managers from RBC Global Asset Management and BlueBay Asset Management share their perspectives on the outlook for emerging markets (EM). Some of the topics discussed include the recovery in China, EM local debt markets, and ESG in emerging market economies.
Podcast: Market bubble, toil and trouble? (Qontigo, Mar 2021)
In this podcast, Olivier d’Assier from Qontigo discusses historical bubbles, concentration risk, global monetary policy, and present-day valuations.
Investment Traffic Lights (DWS, Mar 2021)
In addition to their monthly traffic light-style strategic insights, DWS discusses inflation and the interaction between rising bond yields and equity prices.
Multi-Asset Allocation Views: Room to grow (Aviva Investors, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
This brief multi-asset outlook from Aviva Investors includes sections on U.S. equities, global equities, credit, and currencies.
Stress Testing Four Market-Related Assumptions (Wellington Management, Feb 2021)
Adam Berger, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington Management, stress tests four of the leading assumptions at present about financial markets.
The Disconnect Between GDP Growth and Asian Equities (Man Group, Feb 2021)
In this paper, Man Group looks at the disconnect between Asian GDP fluctuations and the ability to add alpha via stock selection in Asian markets.
Key Macro Curves Confirm More Procyclical Strength (UBS AM, Mar 2021)
UBS Asset Management believes that the broad macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of the current cycle. In this paper, the authors examine several curves that support their position.
Webinar: Hedging risk while driving returns (World Gold Council, Mar 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
This webinar discusses the four primary drivers of gold prices, as well as the outlook for gold given the present interest rate environment in early 2021 and other macro factors.
Global Markets Overview (Willis Towers Watson, Feb 2021)
Willis Towers Watson's Global Markets Overview for the month of February includes a broad macroeconomic outlook and an assessment of relative value within global equity and fixed income markets.
Video: The coming stock market crash of 2021 (FT, Feb 2021)
Jeremy Grantham of GMO speaks with the Financial Times about historical equity valuations and the risk of a stock market crash in 2021.
Global Investment Views (Amundi, Mar 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
Amundi Asset Management discusses inflation, the recovery in emerging markets, currencies, and more in this March edition of their multi-asset strategic investment outlook.
A Shot in the Arm for the Global Economy (QMA, Feb 2021)
The February CIO call between PGIM Global Partners and QMA discussed the global economic outlook and the fight against the pandemic. This brief paper reviews multiple facets of that conversation.
Macro Investment Themes: China, the Fed, and vaccines (Manulife IM, Feb 2021)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Has China's economic rebound reached its zenith? What are the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate being 'on hold' for the foreseeable future? How will the vaccine rollout affect the global economic outlook? Manulife Investment Management looks at these and other macro themes in this brief update.
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2021 (OECD)
This economic outlook paper from the OECD contains 205 pages of updates on the economic environment within China, India, and Southeast Asia, including sections on health economics and IR 4.0.
