How Macro Forces Move Asset Prices
A macrostrategy update
The idea of macrostrategy is to assess how macroeconomic developments may impact asset prices. For example, the scarcity of interbank liquidity that caused the Global Financial Crisis was a macro event that affected the share prices of banks and the amount and type of credit in the economy. Not all macro developments are as drastic. Nevertheless, trying to analyse how inflation, the war in Eastern Europe and climate change may impact markets is the core aim of macrostrategy, reflected in the selection below.
Swan Lake: The Risks to Watch For In 2023 (NYLIM Multi-Asset Solutions)
This paper provides in-depth analysis of several major risks that investors need to watch out for in the year ahead, including black swans – high-impact, unpredictable events.
2023 Fixed Income Default Study (UBS AM)
Looking at fixed income markets from a bottom-up angle, this paper offers a detailed analysis of default risk across different products.
Taking Stock: Market Views (BlackRock)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States
Taking a long-term view on equity markets is essential in a volatile macro regime. It's just as important to contextualise market moves with historic data.
Opportunities Among Divergent Views (Allspring Global Investments)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
The macro forces that affected markets and economies in 2022 are likely to persist over asset classes for a while. Investors need to be prepared for multiple possible outcomes.
How Artificial Intelligence Unlocks Growth (Baillie Gifford)
In our fast-changing world, there are new sources of economic growth that will affect asset prices. AI is potentially one of them.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder (GMO)
For long-horizon fundamental investors, the bigger picture remains that long-run, macro issues are beginning to bite hard into growth prospects.
Assessing Europe's Energy Crisis (Fisher Investments)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Energy markets have come to the forefront of investors' macro agendas since last year's conflict in Eastern Europe, with worries about the price of natural gas growing.
A Century of Asset Allocation Crash Risk
Focusing on drawdowns, this paper shows that risk-tolerant and well-informed investors achieve significantly better results when they use extended historical data.
SPECIAL REPORT
Investment Outlook: Setting the stage for 2023 (Invesco)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Inflation and interest rates remain key drivers for economies and markets. What are the prospects for growth as a consequence? If we are in a contractionary period currently, much will depend on whether a pause in central bank tightening will enable a recovery to play out. This Special Report considers the outlook for the year ahead.
