When Will Inflation Disappear? If Ever…

Inflation risk remains alive and on the agenda for many investors

Although financial press commentary seems to have moved away from the topic of inflation – at least in recent weeks – the asset management industry remains on high alert. Some argue that getting inflation below the target rate will cause substantially more damage than good to economies and markets. Below you can find some of the latest research on the current state of inflation, and the risks it presents right now (and in the future) to global allocators.

Mitigating Inflation Risks (UBS AM)

The global market for inflation-linked bonds has grown over the past decade from USD 1.72 trillion to USD 2.82 trillion, indicating the pressing need to protect against inflation.

The Case For A Higher-inflation Regime (Capital Group)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Are financial markets underestimating the potential for a shift towards a higher-inflation regime? This paper argues that investors are indeed underestimating this possibility.

Excess Inflation and Asset Class Returns (SRSV)

Future inflation is not easy to predict. Meaningful recent inflation trends can play a role in shaping inflation target risk.

Lower Service Productivity, Higher Inflation? (Lombard Odier IM)

Looking at data over the last five decades, this paper shows that lower productivity in the economy ultimately means higher inflation.

Inflation May Have Peaked – But Does Further Danger Lurk? (M&G Investments)

Is the inflation from the Covid-19 years at its peak? If the answer is "yes", how should investors price inflation risk going forward?

Podcast: How Should We Measure Expected Inflation? (VoxEU)

This discussion focuses on the different ways of measuring inflation in Europe, providing some insights into how the inflation rate on the Old Continent might change next.

A Global Growth Rebound And A Mild Inflation In The Gulf (Macrobond)

This chart pack contains interesting analysis about the inflation rate among Gulf nations. Regionally, Dubai stands out in terms of the steep inflation rate.

The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt (FRBSF)

Could governments benefit from switching their debt issuance away from well-established nominal fixed-coupon bonds and towards inflation-indexed bonds?

The Bank of Canada’s Ongoing Battle With Inflation (C.D. Howe Institute)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This paper traces the recent monetary policy developments undertaken by the Bank of Canada in the fight against inflation.