The Global Economy and Geopolitics

How will the world economy fare as new geopolitical tensions arise?

A new IMF report brings disappointing news to investors: Global economic growth is bound to be lower in both 2023 and 2024 relative to the last two decades. The recent conflict in the Middle East has certainly added fuel to concerns regarding the trajectory of the world economy. How can allocators successfully navigate this new global blueprint?

Assessing Scenarios for Oil amid Unrest in the Middle East (Macrobond)

This report looks at the recent dynamics underpinning the oil markets in light of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Rethinking Risk In An Upside-Down World (PGIM)

The challenge facing institutional investors today is twofold: rethinking forecasts for a new economic era, and managing risk as trade policy takes a different course.

Investing Amid An AI Inflection Point (LGIM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Technology, in particular AI, is changing the face of the global economy, as well as how countries interact with one another diplomatically.

Oil And Dollar: Dawn Of A New Era? (State Street)

The movements in oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and the relationship between the two, are major determinants of fiscal and monetary policy.

Sovereign Debt: Driving the Dynamite Truck (First Eagle Investments)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Given the current dysfunctional state of the U.S. political system, it’s hard to envision lawmakers coalescing around measures needed to tackle the country’s fiscal issues.

Israel-Hamas War Brings Geopolitical Risks To The Forefront (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

As geopolitical tensions arise once more in the Middle East, investors need also to pay attention to other macro developments, like the path of monetary policy.

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, And Strategy - October 2023 (Amundi)

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Supply restrictions by OPEC+ likely account for about 60% of the rise in prices, while about 30% is due to demand – global growth remains subdued.

Monthly Oil Market Report Oct 2023 (OPEC)

In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $7.27, or 8.3%, m-o-m to average $94.60/b. Also, the forecast for world economic growth has been revised up slightly.

Biodiversity And The Global Economy (Allspring Global Investments)

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According to the World Economic Forum, over 50% of global gross domestic product in 2019—$44 trillion of economic value generation—may be at risk from biodiversity loss.

Taking Stock of China and the Geopolitics of Energy (OIES)

There are different views about the best approach for China in order to achieve security of oil and gas supplies. This report looks at this issue in detail.

Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials (IRENA)

More so than any other sector or industry, energy is a core driver of socio-economic outcomes and geopolitical landscapes.