Forward-looking Research from February

A selection of unmissable content from the month of February…

As is the tradition, at the end of each month we put together a collection of the most interesting and timely analyses we have come across recently. Below you can find insights into the direction of the Chinese economy, the impact of securities lending and short selling on market prices, the reasons for central banks' losses, and many more developments.

China's Great Reopening: The Prospects for Asia's Growth Engine (Macrobond)

In this video experts from BNY Mellon Investment Management and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as well as an independent economist, discuss China's growth prospects.

The Start And End Of A Recession: Multi-Asset Signals (FTSE Russell)

Analysis of U.S. yield curve inversion – a leading indicator of economic downturn – can be guilty of overlooking the variable lags between inversion and recession.

Myths And Misconceptions In The Active Vs. Passive Debate (T. Rowe Price)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

While the generally low‑cost structure of passive investing has obvious appeal, investors must accept the price of an inability to outperform the market.

To Lend or Not to Lend? (State Street)

The empirical evidence is clear: short selling has important functions in improving market efficiency and providing liquidity when it is most needed.

Asia EM Equities In 2023: The Year Of The Rabbit Run? (Man Group)

While 2022 delivered a challenging backdrop for Asian EM equities, this year looks to be much brighter for this part of the market.

Why Are Central Banks Reporting Losses? (BIS)

Whether losses matter for central banks hinges on understanding the special nature of their finances. For instance, the usual concept of solvency does not apply.

Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges and Policies (World Bank Group)

The World Bank argues that, over time, the growing demand for commodities will have to be met by greater productive capacity.

Top Considerations for Defined Contribution Plans in 2023 (Mercer)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Among the findings of this report is that more and more organizations are looking at partial, full or expanded DC outsourcing approaches.

Investing to Capitalize on the Long-term Trends Shaping Our Future (IMCO)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Some of the key themes that will shape the future of investing include dealing with climate change risk, addressing inequality and deglobalisation.

Proration (Cliffwater)

Proration occurs when investor demand for fund liquidity exceeds specified limits. This can happen more often than anticipated, leading to difficult risk scenarios.